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Post Presidential Election Scenario For Election 2014BY: anuj sharma1 | Category: Politics | Submitted: 2012-07-01 11:17:31
Significance of presidential election in India is being assessed more on the grounds of the role he will play after 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Candidature of Pranab Mukherjee and P.A. Sangma not only disarrayed two big alliances but also opened doors for regional parties to re look into their present stand.
all anticipations suggest that price rise, corruption, scams and people's disillusionment will not let congress led UPA govt make it to power one more time. Economic situation and method of handling of sensitive issues by present congress led govt also indicates that chances of improvement in present scenario are bleak. To add to UPA problems Anna Hazare and his civil society are adamant on going for a nation wide movement against union govt from July 25th. In these circumstances things will be difficult for UPA govt in 2014 elections which at that time will face anti incumbency factor also.
Unfavorable election prospects for congress party do not provide any reason to celebrate to BJP led NDA also.With all its stalwarts in parliament BJP has hardly done anything in last two years which could mobilize popular support in its favor. In fact exposed internal politics and rivalry of leaders has put BJP in uncomfortable situation. All present leaders in parliament are capable of winning their own election but there is none is strong enough to lead BIP to power in election 2014. Party's national leadership is known more for controversial decisions and losses it brought to BJP. When political situations were most conducive for opposition, BJP failed to capitalize. Recently held assembly elections of five states made this clear that BJP is losing grounds in northern states. On other hand its regional allies are in comfortable position.
Therefore NDA allies might peruse therir stand afresh. Bihar chief minister Nitish kumar has already made it clear. Nitish Kumar's stand is calculated one as it is highly unlikely that any of present BJP stalwart will garner mass support in election 2014. Leader who can do this is not acceptable to Nitish Kumar. This is due to the fact that if Narendra Modi comes to central politics there will be polarization of Muslim votes against NDA. In this case JDU will suffer most as Akali Dal, Shiv Sena or MNS will remain unaffected.
RSS understands sentiments of grass root worker who thinks present leadership has made BJP slack and somnolent and new enthusiastic, confidant and flamboyant leader is required to put BJP back on track. In his opinion Narendra Modi is most suitable leader for this task, RSS also thinks same. Sangh perhaps has also made its mind to back Narendra Modi and play soft Hindutva card. Who can be better than Modi to equate hindutwa with development.
If opportunities open for yet another front after elections 2014, Nitish Kumar and Mulayam Singh Yadav will be two leaders around whom regional parties will rally. Mulayan Singh Yadav's close proximity with congress will make him less acceptable than Nitish Kumar. Samajwadi Party might also loose its Muslim votes to congress as it lost in 2009 Loksabha elections. But if chances emerge Mulayam Singh Yadav can expect support from congress. Nitish Kumar on other hand will be more acceptable to regional allies. If so required he can also get support from BJP after election 2014.
So far as two national parties are concerned things are not encouraging till now. Congress' only hopes lie in Rahul Gandhi. He is capable also and can lead his party successfully in 2014 elections, provided UPA govt and his own party don't put him in a situation where he was put in assembly elections three months back where corruption, price rise and scams had made congress extremely unpopular( it still is), leaders of congress party were doing regional parties' caste and communal politics and Rahul Gandhi himself was advised to look angry young man of India unnecessarily. He is soft heartened gentle man like his father and it would be wise for him to remain same in public also. Rahul Gandhi should be credited because despite most unfavorable situation he could increase congress tally, in numbers and in percentage.
It would be interesting to watch how Narendra Modi takes on his own party. He is also the only hope for BJP and there is no doubt he can bring back BJP's lost support back to its fold. Modi's style of politics is not acceptable to many of his own party leaders but he is most popular among BJP voters.
Next two years will be marked by lot of political upheavals, many possibilities will be worked at and two most popular leaders, Rahul Gandhi an Narendra Modi will contest for the post of prime minister. This will make election 2014 an elections of personalities. Time will decide the winner. If there is deuce, there will be advantage Nitish Kumar.
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