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Iron and Steel Industry: The Future Policy Trends Affect the Fundamentals

BY: zhang pretty | Category: Others | Submitted: 2010-09-20 22:21:41
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Article Summary: "With the inspection team throughout the inspection to continue , limiting the production of steel entered a substantive stage . Hebei, Shanxi and other places most of the steel mills in the state by stopping , complex products is difficult to grasp the point of making steel products for the procurement of raw materials is more c.."


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With the inspection team throughout the inspection to continue , limiting the production of steel entered a substantive stage . Hebei, Shanxi and other places most of the steel mills in the state by stopping , complex products is difficult to grasp the point of making steel products for the procurement of raw materials is more cautious . Adjustments and because steel prices this week , resulting in raw material prices this week were still vulnerable to adjust . India mine down to 146 U.S. dollars / ton , 1.35% decline in the chain ; within the mine weeks , decreased 1.67% ; coke prices remain range-bound , week decrease 0.07%; BDI turn down , weekly drop 10.65% .

Steel : Limited production boom brought the end of steel rational callback

1. Complex steel production led to rumors of a rational callback . Steel prices this week Composite Index[2090.75 0.21%]Chain fell 0.9%. Steel mills cut production and push up the market price ex-factory price increases are expected to push up steel prices below the required continuous positive stimuli , but with the rumors and Hebei steel production complex macro policy adjustments anticipated the emergence of real estate , steel re- Attributed to the decline . Factors from the policy side of the leading steel price trends once again , consistent with our view of last week's Weekly .

2. Control is expected to strengthen , futures price minus the amount reduced . Futures closing price of 4359 yuan / ton , weekly drop of 3%; volume chain decreased 13.47% . Steel prices still rising late momentum , and this week's decline has been pre- digested gains , so the higher margin of safety . But the tightening of short-term policies , the expected stronger regulation of real estate , futures prices will be subject to the policy side and emotional side of larger .

Maori : Maori have declined following the reduction of social stock

This week the price of raw materials and steel products are vulnerable to adjust ( the average decrease in prices of raw materials was 0.65 %, average steel prices decline 0.9 %), and decreases the cost of fall below the steel , so most of the steel product gross margin was in a downward (cold Rolled , galvanized improvements in gross margin per tonne ) ; social stock , decreased by 0.65% , the rest of this week than hot rolled steel stocks were slightly less social species . Wire and thread the largest decline in inventories in line with the cut to length materials based phenomenon.

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Long-term trend in the steel industry : reduced production caused by power cuts although difficult to sustain , but the subsequent reduction targets will continue to occur , similar behavior will be staged from time to time . People coming back into the country steel industry , M and A action will increase the steel industry to solve deep-seated contradictions are further obstacles to be clear , the steel to enhance the probability of large valuation . Of course, to solve deep-seated contradictions in a day , still need to raise the valuation of the follow-up and follow the further evolution of events .

Steel stocks short-term trend :
We still maintain the view before : the impact of macro-policy factors that will continue to face the leading steel stock trends , follow-up control policy tightening and the real estate is expected to suppress the iron and steel stocks up space .

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